#Finetune odds asteroid hitting update

This research employs reinforcement learning, a subset of machine learning, to produce a controller that is suitable for on-board low-thrust guidance in challenging dynamical regions of space. Many traditional approaches rely on either simplifying assumptions in the dynamical model or on abundant computational resources. In nonlinear dynamical environments, computationally efficient guidance strategies are challenging. Human presence in cislunar space continues to expand, so too does the demand for `lightweight' automated on-board processes. We’d love to hear from you! If you have a comment about this article or if you have a tip for a future Freethink story, please email us at. The impact probability remains really small.” “I’m not any more concerned about Bennu than I was before. “It’s not a significant change,” he told the NYT. The bottom line, according to Farnocchia? NASA also determined the specific date when a collision with Bennu is most likely - Septembut even then, the odds are just 1 in 2,700.

“I’m not any more concerned about Bennu than I was before.” Davide Farnocchia That’s a slight change from its previous prediction (a 1 in 2,700 chance of impact between now and 2200). What’s new: According to NASA, the chance of the Bennu asteroid hitting Earth between now and 2300 is about 1 in 1,750. “We’ve never modeled an asteroid’s trajectory to this precision before,” he added. “The OSIRIS-REx data give us so much more precise information, we can test the limits of our models and calculate the future trajectory of Bennu to a very high degree of certainty through 2135,” study lead Davide Farnocchia said in a press release.

#Finetune odds asteroid hitting update

Those samples won’t be in NASA’s hands until 2023 (OSIRIS-REx is still making the journey home), but NASA has already used what it’s learned from the probe to update its predictions about the Bennu asteroid. The craft spent two years studying Bennu up close, recording data from its orbit and even landing on the asteroid to collect rock samples - a first for NASA. The OSIRIS-REx mission: To find out as much about the Bennu asteroid as possible, NASA launched the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft in 2016. “So an object Bennu’s size impacting on the Eastern Seaboard states would pretty much devastate things up and down the coast.” “But the area of devastation is going to be much, much broader than that, as much as 100 times the size of the crater,” he continued. “ half-kilometer-sized object is going to create a crater that’s at least five kilometers in diameter, and it can be as much as 10 kilometers in diameter,” PDCO Director Lindley Johnson told the New York Times. “An object Bennu’s size … would pretty much devastate things up and down the coast.” Lindley Johnsonīennu is about one-third of a mile (half a kilometer) wide, and if it were to impact Earth, it could cause serious destruction. It’s currently almost 200 million miles away from us, but it’s expected to get within 125,000 miles in 2135 - that’s about half the distance between Earth and the moon. The Bennu asteroid : NASA discovered the Bennu asteroid in 1999. Right now, the PDCO is keeping a close eye on two particularly threatening space rocks, one of them being Bennu. If a large asteroid were to slam into Earth’s surface, though, the result could be devastating, so NASA established the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) in 2016 to detect and monitor any potentially dangerous asteroids and create a plan to prevent impacts, if possible.īennu is expected to get within 125,000 miles of Earth - about half the distance to the moon.

The background: Our solar system contains more than a million asteroids, and most are tiny and highly unlikely to come anywhere near Earth. NASA has just updated its predictions about the possibility of the Bennu asteroid slamming into Earth, even going so far as to pinpoint the exact date an impact is most probable: September 24, 2182.